Research on power, markets and the deals connecting them.
Trader and macro researcher
London, UK
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12 posts across Research, Reports, Notes.
GE Vernova has agreed to buy Trench from Triton for $9bn. The deal, the price, and why a transformer maker wants to own its bushing supplier.
Read the reportSource: GE Vernova investor presentation, 28 October 2026, revenue and margin by year converted at 1.12. The multiples are my arithmetic
A case study of the largest GPU rental business: what it earns, what it owes, and what the credit market is really pricing.
Read the researchSource: FY2025 Form 10-K and Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, consolidated statements of cash flows. Gross cash movements over the period, not a sources and uses statement, so they do not sum.
A study of Triton Partners' exit from Trench: what Trench makes, what Triton paid and has already taken out, where the company sits in the grid and AI buildout, and whether it gets sold or listed.
Read the report| Period | Revenue, € millions | Order intake, € millions |
|---|---|---|
| Fiscal 2024 | 684 | 1,040 |
| Fiscal 2025 | 907 | 1,400 |
| Fiscal 2026 (first three quarters) | 860 | 1,490 |
Source: Trench Group results, 16 December 2025, and POWER Magazine
/Note
Triton Partners is looking to sell Trench Group, or take it public. Morgan Stanley is running a dual track, with an exit as early as next year.
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When supply is capped, extra demand can't turn into extra volume, not in the near term. It turns into price. Price turns into Fed hikes, and hikes turn into a higher real discount rate.
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Siemens Energy, June quarter. On gas it booked 15GW and shipped 6GW, a 2.5x book-to-bill, with lead times now three years or more.
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Things to watch: GE Vernova's third quarter in late October, then Siemens Energy's full year in November.
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CoreWeave borrows through separate SPVs, each holding chips plus one customer contract. DDTL 4.0, $8.5B in March 2026, priced at SOFR plus 225bps and rated A3 because it sits on a $14.2B Meta contract, so lenders are really underwriting Meta. DDTL 5.0, $3.1B in May, SOFR plus 450bps, rated Ba2, on...
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Compute: chip fab → HBM and packaging → GPU owners (hyperscalers, neoclouds) → rental price indices (Silicon Data, Ornn, COIL) → exchanges (CME, ICE) → buyers (labs)
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A GPU loses roughly half its resale value within three years, and rental rates for older chips are down 50 to 70%. A chip bought in 2025 and installed in 2027 has two of its best earning years gone before it earns a dollar.
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