Research on power, markets and the deals connecting them.
Trader and macro researcher
London, UK
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9 posts across Research, Notes.
A case study of the largest GPU rental business: what it earns, what it owes, and what the credit market is really pricing.
Read the researchSource: FY2025 Form 10-K and Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, consolidated statements of cash flows. Gross cash movements over the period, not a sources and uses statement, so they do not sum.
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Is anyone actually talking about the contractors doing the building for this AI buildout and grid enhancement?
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The binding constraint on AI buildout is power delivery, not chips
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CoreWeave borrows through separate SPVs, each holding chips plus one customer contract. DDTL 4.0, $8.5B in March 2026, priced at SOFR plus 225bps and rated A3 because it sits on a $14.2B Meta contract, so lenders are really underwriting Meta. DDTL 5.0, $3.1B in May, SOFR plus 450bps, rated Ba2, on...
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Compute: chip fab → HBM and packaging → GPU owners (hyperscalers, neoclouds) → rental price indices (Silicon Data, Ornn, COIL) → exchanges (CME, ICE) → buyers (labs)
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A GPU loses roughly half its resale value within three years, and rental rates for older chips are down 50 to 70%. A chip bought in 2025 and installed in 2027 has two of its best earning years gone before it earns a dollar.
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US data centre electricity demand is expected to go from about 31 GW in 2025 to 41 GW in 2026 and 66 GW in 2027, with Goldman forecasting 95 GW by 2030. But of roughly 16 GW slated for 2026 delivery, only about 5 GW is under construction.
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